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| #513850 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 27.May.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL... BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... 1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
