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| #513929 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 27.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY. BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR... AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 30.0N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 30.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 30.2N 82.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 30.6N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 31.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 33.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 31/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
