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| #514008 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 27.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS HAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT 3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER INTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS DSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 30.2N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 30.5N 82.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0000Z 34.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN |
