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| #514072 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 28.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS. BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1800Z 31.9N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 32.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0600Z 35.7N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/0600Z 38.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
