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| #514407 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD- MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 31.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 32.2N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 34.7N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/1200Z 36.2N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 40.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
