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| #514488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48 HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 31.8N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 32.8N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
