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| #5163 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS MORNING... THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT APPEARS RESTRICTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THAT MODEL. EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST COURSE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THUS THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST POSITIONS AT THESE EXTENDED TIMES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.8N 54.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 12.0N 57.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 61.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 65.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 68.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 75.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 84.0W 80 KT |
