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| #519544 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 19.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 1100 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2012 CHRIS IS PRODUCING A CURLED...COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT IS ABOUT 40 KT. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. CHRIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SO IT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FASTER SPEED...OR 110/11 KT. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND CAUSE CHRIS TO FURTHER ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AFTER THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND STALLS...CHRIS WILL BEGIN TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS AND ECMWF LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN SIDE. GIVEN THE MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 96 HOURS WHEN CHRIS SHOULD BE FULLY ABSORBED WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE A CLEAR-CUT ANSWER OF WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL END. THE FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED OFF THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT CHRIS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP A DEEPER WARM CORE...BUT THIS MOST LIKELY IS REPRESENTATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WARM SECLUSION. ON THIS BASIS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND FEEDS OFF BAROCLINIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 38.8N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 38.7N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 39.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 41.4N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/0000Z 43.7N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG |
