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| #51995 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 16.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0900Z SUN OCT 16 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W...NEAR WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 79.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART |
