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| #520590 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 23.Jun.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 ...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 87.5W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.. MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA |
