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| #520715 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 24.Jun.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ...DEBBY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 86.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H. THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
