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| #520854 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 24.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
