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| #520980 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 24.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODED ALL OF THE INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING. DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BOTH 18Z AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY...AND THIS HAS LIKELY BEEN THE REASON FOR THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...INDICATE THIS BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE LARGE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GFS MODEL MAY BE LIFTING OUT DEBBY TOO QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION. DEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE INNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND OR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 28.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 28.6N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 28.7N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 28.8N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 28.9N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 29.4N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 29.9N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST 120H 30/0000Z 30.4N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
