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| #521055 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 25.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 28.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 28.9N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.2N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 29.4N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 29.7N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
