Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #521495 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 26.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY AGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER BY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS WEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND MAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION OF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT TOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT BEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND A NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN. AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE OF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN |
