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| #5217 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...4.0...AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 2247 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. DANIELLE IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO 65 KT...THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.2N 30.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.9N 31.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 33.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.7N 35.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.1N 37.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 40.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 42.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 28.0N 43.0W 65 KT |
