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| #521790 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 27.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1100 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 DEBBY IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER...BUT ARE IMMEDIATELY BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...AT 12Z...THE CONVECTION WAS TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISTORTED...WITH AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST APPEARANCE. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE BUT HAS NOT YET BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BUOY REPORTS NEAR THE CENTER SHOW 1-MINUTE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. IT IS ASSUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURING IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DEBBY MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 8Z. USING THESE DATA SOURCES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/09. ALTHOUGH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT HAVING SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO DRAW DEBBY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. HAVING GAINED ENOUGH LATITUDE...STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN CAUSE DEBBY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DEBBY BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ASSUMING THAT DEBBY REMAINS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THE FORMER CAMP OF MODELS FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...DEBBY WILL REMAIN SURROUNDED BY A LARGE POOL OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS/LGEM GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS IDEA...NO LONGER SHOWING MUCH STRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY LOSING ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE FACE OF THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DISSIPATE SOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 29.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 30.1N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 30.5N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 31.3N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 32.3N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 35.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 40.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
