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| #52182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 17.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT |
