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| #52368 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 18.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z TUE OCT 18 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
