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| #5240 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB... SAB...AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. AODT VALUES ARE T4.5...OR 77 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE NICE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING RECURVATURE...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE ALREADY WELL TO THE RIGHT OF DANIELLE'S RECENT MOTION AND CURRENT POSITION. THE NEW GFS RUN TAKES DANIELLE GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 80F AND WARMER WATER AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY..AND DANIELLE COULD EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF IT CONTINUES ITS CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION A LITTLE LONGER THAN FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.2N 31.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 33.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.9N 35.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.4N 37.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 39.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 42.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 26.5N 44.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 45.0W 65 KT |
