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| #52401 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 18.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION... WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT. HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT |
