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| #52469 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 19.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 1500Z WED OCT 19 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER SOUTH TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 882 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 82.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
