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| #52474 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 19.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS. PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT |
