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| #52511 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 19.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 2100Z WED OCT 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
