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| #52515 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 19.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER 5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS... ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.7N 83.7W 140 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W 135 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W 145 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W 145 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W 120 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W 65 KT |
