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| #52543 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 19.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES. IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
