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| #5263 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 15.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 1500Z SUN AUG 15 2004 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...THE GRENADINES...ST.VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.3N 73.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 76.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH |
