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| #52654 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 20.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN INDICATED HERE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
