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| #52714 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 21.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL NEARING COZUMEL... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA APPROACHES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ADJACENT AREAS. CANCUN RADAR SHOWS STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
