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| #52716 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 21.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005 WILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE 130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET. SINCE THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.0N 86.2W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 86.6W 140 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 115 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 87.5W 115 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 36.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
