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| #52781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 21.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 ...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... ...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN. CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
