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| #53030 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 AM 22.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH -80C COLD TOPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION. NWS/SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO REVEALS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ROTATION. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SEASON'S 25TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 OR 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WILMA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABSORPTION INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS... AHEAD AND EAST OF THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AND A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MID- LAYER MEAN GFS BAM. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA. WITH THE REGULAR LIST OF NAMES EXHAUSTED... WE WOULD UTILIZE THE GREEK ALPHABET SHOULD THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE FIRST NAME ON THIS LIST IS ALPHA. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.1N 68.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.9N 69.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.2N 71.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.6N 72.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1200Z 24.9N 72.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
