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| #53077 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 22.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 17.0N 68.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z...ABSORBED |
