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| #53079 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 22.Oct.2005) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005 2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IF EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT 5 PM EDT...THE BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. A TROPICAL STROM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 68.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 71.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 71.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 68.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB |
