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| #531241 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 02.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
