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| #531246 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 02.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/19. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
