|
Show Selection: |
| #53136 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 22.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR... WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
