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| #531445 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 03.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 ...ERNESTO A LITTLE WEAKER...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 60.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE VERY NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER THIS MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
