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| #531571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 03.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST. ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN THIS CASE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
