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| #5316 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 85 KT MAKING DANIELLE THE THIRD CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OF THIS SEASON. DANIELLE IS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SHEAR AND A COOLER OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DANIELLE. DANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BEING A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EASTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL RECURVATURE OF DANIELLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORCAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.4N 33.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 35.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.7N 37.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 39.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 23.1N 40.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 27.4N 41.3W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 31.6N 40.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 36.0W 55 KT |
