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| #531687 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT 0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
