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| #531690 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 CORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS FROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
