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| #531698 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
