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| #531741 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
