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| #531743 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 04.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14. A MID- TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.8N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
