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| #531764 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 PM 04.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
