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| #531807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 04.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 ...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
