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| #531868 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 04.Aug.2012) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 72.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
