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| #531925 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 05.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 73.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.6N 80.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 82.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
