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| #531973 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 05.Aug.2012) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 77.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
